Political Strategy and Mapping
The following project was created during my first GIS class at UCLA. It involved the creation of an election strategy for a California State Assembly candidate. Using GIS, I was tasked to recommend turnout and voting contact strategies that would ensure victory.
Strategy Memorandum for the Democratic Party Candidate in the 65th State Assembly District for the 2016 General Election
Introduction
In the 2014 elections, the Democratic Party suffered disastrous losses, losing the United States Senate as well as numerous governorships, state legislatures, and seats in the House of Representative. However, California’s Democrats mostly withstood the Republican wave, retaining every single statewide office, gaining one House seat and retaining large majorities in both houses of the state legislature. Unfortunately, the party was unable to retain the two-thirds supermajority it held after the 2012 elections (California State Legislature, n.d.)
The loss of the supermajority stemmed from several factors, namely a significant drop in voting among minority and Democratic-leaning voters in marginal seats, including the one in this project, the 65th State Assembly District held by Sharon Quirk-Silva, who lost to Young Kim, the current assemblywoman (Lay, n.d.).
President Barack Obama received 53.2% of the vote in the district, showing that its voters are not immune to voting for Democrats. Just two years later, former Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva would lose this same district by a 9.2% margin, 45.4% to 54.6% (Lay, n.d.), (Data | Statewide Database, 2015).
Still, two years is an eternity in electoral politics and with a presidential election scheduled for 2016, Democrats now possess an excellent opportunity to retake this vital district.
The District
A discussion of this district must begin with its demographics and previous election results, as voting preferences and habits vary greatly across racial and ethnic groups as well as class.
The 65th district is composed of a diverse group of cities with numerous ethnicities, races and income levels. These cities are Anaheim, Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, Garden Grove, La Palma, and Stanton. As seen in the chart below, the Democratic Party candidate will have to appeal to a range of residents to win and hold this district. The chart shows that the 65th district is a strongly middle class, diverse and varied place. A good campaign must be able to inspire and convince residents of all income levels, races and ethnicities to win. Furthermore, victory must be achieved by precise targeting of the large proportion of independent voters as well as increasing turnout amongst the Democratic voters in the district. Finally, in order to hold the seat for the long term, the Democratic Party must be able to maintain high turnout levels amongst its core voters along with maintaining the support of independents, and/or some inroads amongst Republican voters.
The upcoming presidential election provides a perfect opportunity to retake this district as the media attention and increased turnout will aid Democrats in getting voters to the polls. Victory is fully possible if a well-run, aggressive, and inclusive campaign is implemented in this district.
Strategy, Race, and Ethnicity
Data Source
The most important priorities of any Democratic candidate must be turnout and voter registration, especially among Hispanics, who experience a disproportionate drop-off in midterm elections. According to the Pew Research Center, only 11.2 out of 23.3 eligible Hispanic voters voted in the 2012 presidential elections, a turnout of approximately 48.1% (Lopez, Gonzalez & Barrera, 2013).
In midterm elections, Hispanic turnout rate craters. Recent data shows that in 2010, just 31.2% of Hispanic voters cast a ballot (Lopez, 2011). Particular attention must be given to Anaheim and Buena Park, which are areas with heavy Hispanic populations that are particularly vulnerable to a decrease in midterm election turnout.
Thus, any Democratic candidate absolutely must put forward an intense, constant, and determined voter registration and information campaign. No vote can be taken for granted and must be earned. Regardless of polling, the Democratic campaign must work as though it is 5% behind its opponent. Such efforts are necessary to build the infrastructure that will keep this district Democratic in the years to come.
Targeting and Getting Out the Vote
It is at this juncture that strategists turn to targeting. While the 65th District will no doubt be a high priority in the minds of party leaders looking to regain a two-thirds majority in the State Assembly, their resources are not unlimited and neither are funds.
To ensure maximum voter turnout and electoral victory, several methods must be used in conjunction to ensure maximum impact.
Direct Mail
As seen in the table below, the 65th district’s voters are, for the most part, middle to working class people. These are not voters who can easily take a day off or make time to cast a ballot at a polling station on a Tuesday in November. Furthermore, polling stations may be at locations far from voters’ home, further impeding their ability to vote for the Democratic candidate. Therefore, the campaign must make a strong and concerted effort to inform people about voting by mail. Mail-in ballots allow people to vote by filling out a ballot sent to their home and mailing in the completed ballot. By increasing the ease and convenience of voting, Democrats will be able to greatly increase voter turnout and participation.
Direct mail represents the most efficient and cost effective way to informs voters about voting by mail and election dates. Because the 65th District lies in the Los Angeles media market, the second largest in the nation, television advertisements are extremely expensive and may prove ineffective, as viewers may simply change the channel upon seeing another political commercial (Voter Contact Manual, 2004).
In contrast, direct mail will at least attract the glance of possible voters and inform them about a candidate and their campaign. Furthermore, campaign mail is easy to target toward Democratic-friendly precincts as opposed to television advertising, which is present in all areas within the district, wasting money on voters who would be inclined to vote against Democrats anyway (Voter Contact Manual, 2004). To ensure maximum efficacy, direct mail should be designed in a way to quickly attract the recipient’s attention, particularly with respect to the candidates’ name, party, mail-in ballot registration methods, and election dates. Direct mail should only be sent to precincts that have concentrations of registered Democrat voters or independents, as strongly Republican voters will almost certainly throw these mailers away, wasting the campaign’s money (Voter Contact Manual, 2004).
Door-to-Door Canvassing
Canvassing by volunteers, paid and unpaid, represents the most direct way to reach a voter and perhaps the most effective. Having a chat on the front porch with a prospective voter may do more to convince him or her than any amount of television.
Of course, canvassing is a time consuming and arduous process, requiring campaign workers to walk for miles around neighborhoods, knock on dozens if not hundreds of doors, talk to residents and attempt to convince them of their candidate’s merits. If paid, volunteers should be well compensated, and fed well to keep their morale and enthusiasm at high levels (Voter Contact Manual, 2004).
More importantly, each team of canvassers should be given leaflets to give to residents directly or to place in mailboxes if they are not home. Leaflets should include the date of the election, the local residents’ polling stations; the campaigns contact information as well as information and links for registering to vote, whether by mail or person. Such material ensures that the people contacted will have at least some memory of the canvass as well as a quick and easy way to assist the campaign should they decide to do so.
Geographic Targeting
Targeting the right area of the district for campaign advertisement and canvassing is vital, as there will never be enough volunteers or resources to fully cover every precinct. Furthermore, it is a waste of time, energy and money to campaign in areas with devoted partisan Republicans or very few residents. Therefore, the Democratic campaign should focus its efforts on areas with high concentrations of Democratic voters and independent voters.
Data Source
Anaheim and Buena Park
As the two largest cities in terms of Hispanic population and population as a whole, Buena Park and Anaheim must be heavily canvassed for votes. In these two cities, an introductory television ad may aid in increasing name recognition for the Democratic candidate and informing voters of the campaign. Both cities are far too large for canvassers on foot to cover effectively. Also, these two cities chose President Obama in his 2012 campaign by large margins. In short, Anaheim and Buena Park are the Democratic bastions of the 65th District and every possible vote should be wrung from them.
Instead, these two populations centers must be targeted for voter registration and mail-in ballot initiatives. An introductory TV ad, combined with multiple rounds of direct mail, will ensure that both Democratic and prospective voters are aware of the Democratic candidate and his/her campaign. Furthermore, the candidate should hold multiple events in these two cities to garner media coverage and increase voter interest and contact.
The importance of voter registration is further underscored by the fact that the precincts with the highest number of registered voters are not in these two cities. Worse, these precincts are filled with Republicans and are in strongly Republican areas. To counter this numerical advantage, the Democratic campaign must maximize voter turnout and registration in these two cities to gain the upper and win the election. Finally, investing in voter participation in Anaheim and Buena Park will provide long-term benefits to the Democratic Party. Currently, Democrats hold only a plurality of registered voters in the two cities. Increasing this proportion to a majority or even a super-majority will help Democrats in future local, midterm and general elections.
Fullerton
Fullerton presents a quandary to the Democratic campaign, as it is both a Republican stronghold and large concentration of independent voters. Of the three major cities in the district, President Obama received the fewest votes here. Some of the district’s most Republican precincts are in this city, and under no circumstance should effort be wasted on these areas. Instead, campaign workers should focus on the precincts near the border with Anaheim, as those areas contain the largest numbers of independent voters who may be swayed by Democrats. Such an effort is vital for the Democrats’ chance to retain this seat for the long term. In addition, converting voters in Republican-leaning areas will allow Democrats a greater margin for error in close races and create more electoral opportunities at the local and federal levels. In a sense, for the purposes of the 2016 election, Fullerton is more of a long-term project rather than an important source of votes for the Democratic candidate. There are simply too many Republican voters in Fullerton to provide a large boost to any Democratic candidate.
Stanton, Cypress, and La Palma
While these cities are small compared to the three above, they should not be completely ignored. Every single vote counts and in a close race, these ballots could mean the difference between victory and defeat. In particular, Cypress is a strongly Democratic city and is small enough for a strong, concerted door-to-door canvass and direct mail campaign to increase turnout. Stanton and La Palma have strongly Republican precincts and should not be given too much attention in light of their small size. It would be more productive for the Democratic campaign to invest in voter registration and turnout in the large cities of Fullerton, Anaheim and Buena Park instead of expending too many precious resources on Stanton and La Palma.
Conclusion
The 2016 presidential election in 2016 will ensure that the race for the 65th Assembly District will be a hard-fought and difficult one. However, Democrats will have an excellent chance to triumph by increasing and maximizing turnout in the cities of Anaheim and Buena Park. Making advances amongst the Asian and independent voters of Fullerton will greatly increase the prospects of holding this seat in future elections, both midterm and presidential. Building a well-staffed, well-funded and competently managed campaign is vital in order to achieve best possible results for the Democratic Party and its candidate.
Public Report 